Lecture III: Energy Consumption and Forecasting

Units reminder.

Quadrillion British thermal units (QBTU): Quad ~ EJ.

Electricity. Plant capacity cited in thousand kWh (not s).
Since year ~0.9 104 hours (h) capacity is ~9 TJ.
So million MkWh or 9 EJ or 9 Quad, call it 10 Quad!

Coal, Oil & Gas are often reported in units that reflected how they are delivered for 2003 US and World figures, respectively.
Coal
G Short-tons
Oil
M barrels/day
Gas
G cubit-feet
US120 20
World58092

Fortunately can often find energy produced in Quad (EJ). But you have to be careful since also other considerations affected the reporting: efficiency, transmission losses, etc.

2003 Data; Forecasts for 2013 & 2023

Units: Quad BTU per year (rounded)
Courtesy DOE
US Production '03'13'23
Oil121210
Gas222424
Coal232529
Nuclear899
Renewable789
Total717881<=
US Consumption'03'13'23
Oil394753
Gas232831
Coal232529
Nuclear899
Renewal678
Total98116130<=

How do these estimates look in the world?
Energy Consumption by Sector (Quad)
Sector200220152025
Mature Market:
N. America, Europe, Asia
214247272
Transitional Economies546878
Emerging Economies: Asia
Middle East, C&S America
144238295
Total412554645
Increasing 2 % per year: (1.02)23 = 1.58.
Gross National Product (Trillion, in 2000 dollars)
Sector200220152025
Mature Market 25.335.545.2
Transitional Economies3.56.59.4
Emerging Economies 18.436.958.2
Total47.278.9112.8
Increasing 3.9 % per year: (1.039)23
GDP/Energy 2002-2025 by section:
Mature: 29%; Transitional: 44%; Emerging: 54%

Is this the message?
Emerging economies best leverage their increased energy use.

Effect on US: example of gas

1950-2000. Top: gas consumption and gas production;
bottom: gas consumption overview and gas imports
Gas Consumption 1950-2000 Gas Production 1960-2000
Gas Overview 1950-2000 Gas Imports 1950-2000

Late breaking news: NYTimes 28 Sep 05.

"High prices ...[bad news]... for the chemical industry. Natural gas is both its main fuel and ... raw material..."
"Unlike oil ... a global commodity, gas is ... [regionally]. Liquid natural gas can be shipped ... , but ... expensive ... only 3% ... into the US...."
"Around 2001 [$2/MBTU in 2000], demand began to exceed supply, and gas prices ... soared . ... Then Katrina... gas prices ... around $12."

How should you look at the data?

Exponential Growth?

Text in Chapter 5 stresses exponential growth. Over long periods of time, that is reasonable (say, 100 - 2000 AD). But be careful.


To cite this page:
Energy Consumption and Forecasting
<http://www.physics.ohio-state.edu/~wilkins.5/energy/Resources/Lectures/forecasting.html>
[Friday, 15-Dec-2017 07:13:26 EST]
Edited by: wilkins@mps.ohio-state.edu on Wednesday, 24-Sep-2008 17:45:22 EDT