Energy Consumption and Forecasting

Reminder: Quadrillion British thermal units: Quad ~ EJ.

Electricity. Plant capacity cited in thousand kWh (not s).
Since year ~0.9 104 hours (h), capacity is ~9 TJ.
So million MWh or 9 EJ or 9 Quad, call it 10 Quad!

Coal, Oil & Gas are often reported in units that reflected how they are delivered; e.g., for 2003 US and World figures,
Coal
G Short-tons
Oil
M barrels/day
Gas
G cubit-feet
US120 20
World58092

Fortunately can often find energy produced in Quad (EJ).

2003 Data; Forecasts for 2013 & 2023
US Production(Quad) '03'13'23
Oil121210
Gas222424
Coal232529
Nuclear899
Renewable789
Total717881<=
US Consumption'03'13'23
Oil394753
Gas232831
Coal232529
Nuclear899
Renewal678
Total98116130<=

How do these estimates look in the world? <
Energy Consumption by Sector (Quad)
Sector200220152025
Mature: N. Amer. Europe, Asia 214247272
Transitional Economies546878
Emerging: Asia, Middle East, C&S America 144238295
Total [2% per year: (1.02)23 = 1.6] 412554645
Gross National Product (Trillion, in 2000 dollars)
Sector200220152025
Mature Market 253645
Transitional Economies479
Emerging Economies 183758
Total [3.9% per year: (1.039)23=2.4] 4779113
GDP/Energy 2002-2025 by section:
Mature: 29%; Transitional: 44%; Emerging: 54%

Is this the message?
Emerging economies best leverage their increased energy use.

US Gas; World Energy Planning

Gas Consumption 1950-2000 Gas
Overview 1950-2000
How gas consumed 1950-2000 Gas: overview 1950-2000
World resion -energy comsumption 1970-29025 Energy Type consumed 1970-2025
Energy comsumed by economy. Energy type consumed

How should you look at the data?

Exponential Growth?

Text in Chapter 5 stresses exponential growth. Over long periods of time, that is reasonable (say, 100 - 2000 AD). But be careful.