Moore's Law

In 1965 Gordon Moore, preparing a talk, noticed that up to that time microchip capacity seemed to double each year. The pace of change having slowed down a bit over the past few years, the definition has changed (with Gordon Moore's approval) to reflect that the doubling occurs only every 18 months

Moore's observation, now known as Moore's Law, described a trend that has continued and is still remarkably accurate. It is the basis for many planners' performance forecasts; indeed industry has a development "roadmap" to achieve the forecast. In 26 years the number of transistors on a chip has increased more than 3,200 times, from 2,300 on the 4004 in 1971 to 7.5 million on the PentiumŪ II processor.

In September, 1997, announcements by Intel of 2-bit flash memory and by IBM of chip circuitry of copper rather than aluminum suggested a return of the original version of Moore's Law.