Physics Colloquium, October 7, 2003

Nuclear Proliferation in the Post-Soviet World

David Hafemeister

Physics Department
Cal Poly University

The historic ups and downs on the basic bargain of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty will be briefly discussed.

The Russian stockpile of plutonium/HEU will be estimated from "first principles." Control for the Russian materials will be described in terms of the wide ranging Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiative. The purchase of 500 tonnes of Russian HEU will be briefly analyzed, and projected to other possibilities. The attribute and template approaches to monitor warheads will be described. The guiding criteria for adoption of these technologies will be considered against the standard of effective verification.

The global stockpile of plutonium will be estimated from "first principles." The difference between reactor grade Pu and weapon grade Pu will be briefly analyzed. The economics of the plutonium economy will be briefly analyzed in terms of capital costs, the price of uranium and the growth of nuclear power. The shift of the threat from Pu to HEU will be commented on, as well as the link to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

3.30 p.m., Smith Laboratory, Room 1005

Refreshments served in Smith 1094 at 3:00 p.m.